This book is subtitled 'Disasters you should have seen coming, and how to prevent them', which gives a good indication of the authors' pragmatic approach to dealing with disruption. Focusing on the aspects of this topic that relate to organisations and management, Bazerman and Watkins identify several elements that influence both the anticipation of impending problems and subsequent action or inaction.

Preventing Predictable Surprises

The book identifies three factors that need to be taken into account to avoid unwelcome surprises. Firstly, recognition. This entails identifying emerging threats earlier - in other words, noticing and acknowledging the potential seriousness of the first signs of danger. Secondly, prioritisation: focusing on and attending urgently to the right problem or issue. It requires clear thinking and consistency to avoid a spray-gun approach, ineffectually dabbing at low-level problems as they appear on the horizon. The third activity necessary for prevention is mobilisation - building support for preventative action, collaborating effectively with others  to take avoidance measures with the intelligent use of resources.

The Characteristics of Emerging Predictable Surprises

How do you distinguish between surprises that could have been anticipated and pre-empted and those that are simply not predictable? Bazerman and Watkins identify six features of those surprises that can generally be predicted:

1. At least some people are aware of the threat, but it has been left to fester.
2. The evidence suggests that the problem is increasing and will not solve itself.
3. Fixing the problem would incur a significant cost in the present to achieve unquantifiable delayed benefits in the future - the reward is unknown
4. Decision makers are unmotivated because they would obtain little or no credit for taking pre-emptive action where the benefit would be one of avoidance rather than measurable gain
5. Natural human tendency to maintain the status quo without a crisis to serve as a catalyst for intervention
6. Inertia benefits certain individuals or groups invested in the current system, who will then resist change or preventative actions

“When we got into office, the thing that surprised me the most was that things were as bad as we'd been saying they were.”